CoolData blog

11 January 2010

The 15 top predictors for Planned Giving – Part 3

Okay, time to deliver on my promise to divulge the top 15 predictor variables for propensity to enter a Planned Giving commitment.

Recall the caveat about predictors that I gave for Annual Giving: These variables are specific to the model I created for our institution. Your most powerful predictors will differ. Try to extract these variables from your database for testing, by all means, but don’t limit yourself to what you see here.

In Part 2, I talked about a couple of variables based on patterns of giving. The field of potential variables available in giving history is rich. Keep in mind, however, that these variables will be strongly correlated with each other. If you’re using a simple-score method (adding 1 to an individual’s score for each positively-correlated predictor variable), be careful about using too many of them and exaggerating the importance of past giving. On the other hand, if you use a multiple regression analysis, these related variables will interact with each other – this is fine, but be aware that some of your hard-won variables may be reduced to complete insignificance.

Just another reason to look beyond giving history!

For this year’s Planned Giving propensity model, the predicted value (‘Y’) was a 0/1 binary value: “1” for our existing commitments, “0” for everyone else. (Actually, it was more complicated than that, but I will explain why some other time.)

The population was composed of all living alumni Class of 1990 and older.

The list

The most predictive variables (roughly in order of influence) are listed below. Variables that have a negative correlation are noted N. Note that very few of these variables can be considered continuous (eg. Class Year) or ordinal (survey scale responses). Most are binary (0/1). But ALL are numeric, as required for regression.

  1. Total lifetime giving
  2. Number of Homecomings attended
  3. Response to alumni survey scale question, regarding event attendance
  4. Number of President’s Receptions attended
  5. Class Year (N)
  6. Recency: Gave in the past 3 years
  7. Holds another degree from another university (from survey)
  8. Marital status ‘married’
  9. Prefix is Religious (Rev., etc.) or Justice
  10. Alumni Survey Engagement score
  11. Business phone present
  12. Number of children under 18 (from survey) (N)

Like my list of Annual Giving predictors, this isn’t a full list (and it isn’t 15 either!). These are the most significant predictors which don’t require a lot of explanation.

Note how few of these variables are based on giving – ‘Years of giving’ and ‘Frequency of giving’ don’t even rate. (‘Lifetime giving’ seems to take care of most of the correlation between giving and Planned Giving commitment.) And note how many variables don’t even come from our database: They come from our participation in a national survey for benchmarking of alumni engagement (conducted in March 2009).

Advertisements

1 Comment »

  1. […] Part 3, I will finally reveal my top 15 predictors of Planned Giving potential. I promise. Possibly […]

    Pingback by The 15 top predictors for Planned Giving – Part 2 « CoolData blog — 11 January 2010 @ 9:20 am


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: